15 Apr 2015
AUD/USD consolidation expected – Growth Aces
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Reviewing today’s Australian data release, the Growth Aces Research Team, further comment on the uncertainty of a rate cut in May by the RBA, and stay sideways on AUD/USD.
Key Quotes
“A measure of Australian consumer sentiment fell 3.2% mom and 3.5% yoy in April. The retreat unwound more of February's sharp 8.0% gain which followed a cut in interest rates early that month.”
“A measure of family finances compared to a year ago fell 7.4%, while the outlook for the next 12 months eased a relatively slim 0.7%. Despite all the anxiety, respondents still felt it was a good time to buy a major household item, with that index climbing 5.9% in April.”
“The AUD/USD opened Wednesday at 0.7626, but quickly fell below 0.7600 and is depreciating further. Part of the weakness came after the release of weaker measure of Australian consumer sentiment but China data were also not helping. Annual economic growth in China slowed, as expected, to a six-year low of 7% in the first quarter, while retail sales and industrial output undershot forecasts. Chinese retail sales rose 10.2% yoy vs. median forecast for a 10.9% yoy rise. Industrial output went up by 5.6% yoy vs. median forecast for a 6.9% yoy rise.”
“Investors slightly increased the risk of an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia in May. However, in our opinion May rate cut is uncertain. That is why we see a risk of the relatively stronger AUD and stay sideways on the AUD/USD.”
“Resistance: 0.7678 (session high Apr 13), 0.7694 (21-dma), 0.7720 (high Apr 10)”
“Support: 0.7556 (low Apr 14), 0.7534 (low Apr 2), 0.7500 (psychological level)”
Key Quotes
“A measure of Australian consumer sentiment fell 3.2% mom and 3.5% yoy in April. The retreat unwound more of February's sharp 8.0% gain which followed a cut in interest rates early that month.”
“A measure of family finances compared to a year ago fell 7.4%, while the outlook for the next 12 months eased a relatively slim 0.7%. Despite all the anxiety, respondents still felt it was a good time to buy a major household item, with that index climbing 5.9% in April.”
“The AUD/USD opened Wednesday at 0.7626, but quickly fell below 0.7600 and is depreciating further. Part of the weakness came after the release of weaker measure of Australian consumer sentiment but China data were also not helping. Annual economic growth in China slowed, as expected, to a six-year low of 7% in the first quarter, while retail sales and industrial output undershot forecasts. Chinese retail sales rose 10.2% yoy vs. median forecast for a 10.9% yoy rise. Industrial output went up by 5.6% yoy vs. median forecast for a 6.9% yoy rise.”
“Investors slightly increased the risk of an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia in May. However, in our opinion May rate cut is uncertain. That is why we see a risk of the relatively stronger AUD and stay sideways on the AUD/USD.”
“Resistance: 0.7678 (session high Apr 13), 0.7694 (21-dma), 0.7720 (high Apr 10)”
“Support: 0.7556 (low Apr 14), 0.7534 (low Apr 2), 0.7500 (psychological level)”