6 Apr 2015
EUR/PLN focused on 4.00 – Rabobank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategist Piotr Matys at Rabobank sees the cross grinding lower to the test the key 4.00 level in the medium term.
Key Quotes
“Since the ECB announced its EUR 60bn per month asset purchasing programme on January 22, EUR/PLN plummeted from around 4.30 to a year-to-date low at 4.0708 on March 26”.
“We maintain a bearish view with the 4.00 level as next potential target for EUR/PLN”.
“While the MPC is clearly reluctant to cut rates further, other tools might be used to stem the zloty’s appreciation”.
“A collapse of the fragile truce in eastern Ukraine, followed by escalation of tension between the West and Russia, would undermine our baseline scenario”.
“USD/PLN rallied beyond the post-financial crisis high at 3.9152, reaching 3.9682 before a correction unfolded after the Fed proved insufficiently hawkish for the market to expect a hike in June”.
“That said, the Fed is still likely to hike at some stage this year with Q4 as our base case. Therefore, it is too early to mark the 3.9682 level as an important top this year just yet”.
Key Quotes
“Since the ECB announced its EUR 60bn per month asset purchasing programme on January 22, EUR/PLN plummeted from around 4.30 to a year-to-date low at 4.0708 on March 26”.
“We maintain a bearish view with the 4.00 level as next potential target for EUR/PLN”.
“While the MPC is clearly reluctant to cut rates further, other tools might be used to stem the zloty’s appreciation”.
“A collapse of the fragile truce in eastern Ukraine, followed by escalation of tension between the West and Russia, would undermine our baseline scenario”.
“USD/PLN rallied beyond the post-financial crisis high at 3.9152, reaching 3.9682 before a correction unfolded after the Fed proved insufficiently hawkish for the market to expect a hike in June”.
“That said, the Fed is still likely to hike at some stage this year with Q4 as our base case. Therefore, it is too early to mark the 3.9682 level as an important top this year just yet”.