3 Apr 2015
Probable impact on G10 and EM FX from Nonfarm payrolls – DB
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Alan Ruskin, Macro strategist at Deutsche Bank, gives the probable movements in G10 FX and EM FX on a below or above consensus US Nonfarm payrolls result.
Key Quotes
“A 245K number should then be seen as mildly USD positive against almost all currencies.”
“On genuinely stronger than expected numbers, higher beta EM would likely suffer the most, but no G10 currency is seen immune from stronger US data that will reignite the broader strong USD trend and a retest of pre-FOMC EUR/USD lows.”
“Meaningfully weaker data that adds to conviction of a September tightening or later will include trimming of long USD that could see EUR/USD retest recent 1.1050 levels - as a start.”
“EM led by CEE3 and carry favorite INR would be natural beneficiaries, as would be rate sensitive trades like MXN, as US 10y T.note yields head to the 1.64% lows for the year!”
Key Quotes
“A 245K number should then be seen as mildly USD positive against almost all currencies.”
“On genuinely stronger than expected numbers, higher beta EM would likely suffer the most, but no G10 currency is seen immune from stronger US data that will reignite the broader strong USD trend and a retest of pre-FOMC EUR/USD lows.”
“Meaningfully weaker data that adds to conviction of a September tightening or later will include trimming of long USD that could see EUR/USD retest recent 1.1050 levels - as a start.”
“EM led by CEE3 and carry favorite INR would be natural beneficiaries, as would be rate sensitive trades like MXN, as US 10y T.note yields head to the 1.64% lows for the year!”