30 Mar 2015
UK Q4 GDP growth to be left unrevised from 0.5%qoq – Nomura
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Philip Rush, European Economist at Nomura expects this week’s UK’s Q4 GDP growth to be left unrevised from 0.5%qoq and the current account to narrow to £20bn in Q4.
Key Quotes
“In the ONS’s third estimate of Q4 GDP, we expect the headline pace of growth to be unrevised from 0.5% q-o-q. More movement may come in the expenditure breakdown of the release, which in the revision-prone first estimate revealed surprisingly weak domestic consumption and especially investment, offset by an export boom.”
“The Q4 net trade deficit was trimmed by almost £0.3bn in the last monthly release to $6.1bn, which is well below Q3 levels. The investment income deficit was extremely large in Q3 so we expect a small shrinkage here in Q4 too, albeit only to the still elevated level of £8bn owing to the still adverse relative yields between the UK and the euro area. Altogether, we expect the current account to have narrowed to £20bn in Q4.”
Key Quotes
“In the ONS’s third estimate of Q4 GDP, we expect the headline pace of growth to be unrevised from 0.5% q-o-q. More movement may come in the expenditure breakdown of the release, which in the revision-prone first estimate revealed surprisingly weak domestic consumption and especially investment, offset by an export boom.”
“The Q4 net trade deficit was trimmed by almost £0.3bn in the last monthly release to $6.1bn, which is well below Q3 levels. The investment income deficit was extremely large in Q3 so we expect a small shrinkage here in Q4 too, albeit only to the still elevated level of £8bn owing to the still adverse relative yields between the UK and the euro area. Altogether, we expect the current account to have narrowed to £20bn in Q4.”