23 Mar 2015
EM FX outlook: Long USD/RUB – DB
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Strategists at Deutsche Bank give the outlook for EM Currencies, maintaining a bullish view on TRY/ZAR, USD/RUB and PLN/ILS.
Key Quotes
“With EMEA real, trade-weighted FX near the lows of the past decade and LatAm FX near the lows of the past two decades, the riskier regions already price a grim outlook.”
“EMFX is almost 6% up vs. the EUR and we expect it to hold its ground – particularly if Greece pressures build, as we expect. Keep long TRY/ZAR, USD/RUB, and long PLN/ILS on divergences in monetary policy and country-specific risks.”
“Add EUR/HUF puts on quickening growth.”
“Add long MXN/COP on weakness should BanRep hike (as we expect), but take profit on MXN/ZAR, and PEN/CLP on valuation (though keeping short EUR/PEN).”
Key Quotes
“With EMEA real, trade-weighted FX near the lows of the past decade and LatAm FX near the lows of the past two decades, the riskier regions already price a grim outlook.”
“EMFX is almost 6% up vs. the EUR and we expect it to hold its ground – particularly if Greece pressures build, as we expect. Keep long TRY/ZAR, USD/RUB, and long PLN/ILS on divergences in monetary policy and country-specific risks.”
“Add EUR/HUF puts on quickening growth.”
“Add long MXN/COP on weakness should BanRep hike (as we expect), but take profit on MXN/ZAR, and PEN/CLP on valuation (though keeping short EUR/PEN).”