23 Mar 2015
Canada retail sales come out worse than expected – Scotiabank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Scotiabank Research Team reviews the Canada retail sales data, noting that the country registered a worse than expected retail sales print at -1.7% mom (consensus at -0.8%mom), led by the -8.8%mom decline in Gasoline sales.
Key Quotes
“Canadian retail sales are once again much worse than expected in January and fell -1.7% m/m (expected -0.8%, prior -1.8%). Ex-autos, sales are worse and down -1.8% (expected -0.5%, prior -2.3%).”
“There is a slight prior revision to December’s poor sales figure from -2.0% to -1.8% but that does little to compensate for a second consecutive month of disappointing data.”
“Details are just as discouraging with 7 out of 11 subsectors lower this month vs. last, representing 83% of retail trade according to Statistics Canada, and sales lower in every province save PEI.”
“Volumes were also quite weak and dropped -1.2% m/m in January, suggesting that this weakness is not solely a lower-prices (or gasoline) story. As a result, retail sales on a seasonally adjusted and annualized basis are tracking at a very poor -7% in Q1 ’15 vs. Q4 ’14 (assuming a flat February and March), vs. +2.7% in Q4 over Q3, and +4.3% between Q3 and Q2.”
“Volume momentum is clearly slowing here and there doesn’t seem to be much evidence that consumers are transferring gas savings into more spending elsewhere.”
“Gasoline sales led the declines, as expected, and are down -8.8% m/m. This is the seventh monthly decline in gas prices and on a y/y basis, gas sales have now dropped 19%.”
“Autos were also weak and dropped -1.4% on declines in both new and used cars. This is the fourth month of declines in the sector.”
“Excars and ex-gas, sales are slightly better but contracting at -0.6% m/m.”
Key Quotes
“Canadian retail sales are once again much worse than expected in January and fell -1.7% m/m (expected -0.8%, prior -1.8%). Ex-autos, sales are worse and down -1.8% (expected -0.5%, prior -2.3%).”
“There is a slight prior revision to December’s poor sales figure from -2.0% to -1.8% but that does little to compensate for a second consecutive month of disappointing data.”
“Details are just as discouraging with 7 out of 11 subsectors lower this month vs. last, representing 83% of retail trade according to Statistics Canada, and sales lower in every province save PEI.”
“Volumes were also quite weak and dropped -1.2% m/m in January, suggesting that this weakness is not solely a lower-prices (or gasoline) story. As a result, retail sales on a seasonally adjusted and annualized basis are tracking at a very poor -7% in Q1 ’15 vs. Q4 ’14 (assuming a flat February and March), vs. +2.7% in Q4 over Q3, and +4.3% between Q3 and Q2.”
“Volume momentum is clearly slowing here and there doesn’t seem to be much evidence that consumers are transferring gas savings into more spending elsewhere.”
“Gasoline sales led the declines, as expected, and are down -8.8% m/m. This is the seventh monthly decline in gas prices and on a y/y basis, gas sales have now dropped 19%.”
“Autos were also weak and dropped -1.4% on declines in both new and used cars. This is the fourth month of declines in the sector.”
“Excars and ex-gas, sales are slightly better but contracting at -0.6% m/m.”