17 Mar 2015
Awaiting forward guidance from FOMC - Nomura
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Nomura explained that while it is a close call in respect t the FOMC, they still think the most likely timing for the first interest rate hike is September with the primary alternative being June.
Key Quotes:
"At next week’s FOMC meeting we expect, forward guidance."
"The committee to drop the reference to being “patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy.”
"The FOMC to add language suggesting that future interest rate decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis."
"The Committee may also say in its statement that the decision to drop the reference to being “patient” does not reflect a change in the expected trajectory of policy. FOMC forecasts and its assessment of the economy."
"We expect the FOMC to acknowledge that the recent appreciation of the dollar is a headwind for the US economy, but we think that this will be reflected in a lower path for interest rates rather than slower GDP growth. Recent statements by FOMC participants do not suggest that their outlook for growth has changed materially."
"Core inflation has under performed, and we expect the FOMC to acknowledge that in its forecasts. This is also consistent with a slower pace of interest rate adjustment. Yellen’s Press Conference."
"We expect Chair Yellen to stress, as she did in her recent Congressional testimony, that the Committee’s decision to drop the reference to being “patient” does not mean that an increase in interest rates is imminent."
"We expect Yellen to acknowledge, probably in response to a question, that the recent appreciation of the dollar may affect the pace of interest rate adjustment."
Key Quotes:
"At next week’s FOMC meeting we expect, forward guidance."
"The committee to drop the reference to being “patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy.”
"The FOMC to add language suggesting that future interest rate decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis."
"The Committee may also say in its statement that the decision to drop the reference to being “patient” does not reflect a change in the expected trajectory of policy. FOMC forecasts and its assessment of the economy."
"We expect the FOMC to acknowledge that the recent appreciation of the dollar is a headwind for the US economy, but we think that this will be reflected in a lower path for interest rates rather than slower GDP growth. Recent statements by FOMC participants do not suggest that their outlook for growth has changed materially."
"Core inflation has under performed, and we expect the FOMC to acknowledge that in its forecasts. This is also consistent with a slower pace of interest rate adjustment. Yellen’s Press Conference."
"We expect Chair Yellen to stress, as she did in her recent Congressional testimony, that the Committee’s decision to drop the reference to being “patient” does not mean that an increase in interest rates is imminent."
"We expect Yellen to acknowledge, probably in response to a question, that the recent appreciation of the dollar may affect the pace of interest rate adjustment."