10 Mar 2015
Lowering Japan FY 14-15 growth forecasts – Nomura
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Research Analysts at Nomura, make slight adjustments to Japanese growth forecasts based on second preliminary GDP estimates for 2014 Q4.
Key Quotes
“We have revisited our FY14–16 economic forecasts based on the second set of preliminary GDP estimates for 2014 Q4 and other recently published statistics.”
“In the second set of estimates, 2014 Q4 real GDP growth came in at +1.5% q-q annualized, and while this was lower than the consensus estimate of +2.2% (the median forecast of forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg), it was close to our prior forecast of +1.7%.”
“Having already lowered our outlook on 16 February 2015 to factor in the first preliminary GDP estimate for 2014 Q4 (+2.2%), we have now revised down our FY14 real GDP growth forecast from -0.8% to -0.9% (for CY14, the second preliminary estimate was -0.0%, versus the first preliminary estimate of +0.0%).”
“For FY15, we have lowered our growth projection from +2.1% to +2.0% because the above lowers the carryover effect (for CY15, we have revised our forecast from +1.3% to +1.2%).”
“We retain our FY16 estimate of +1.8% (we have also made no change to our CY16 estimate).”
Key Quotes
“We have revisited our FY14–16 economic forecasts based on the second set of preliminary GDP estimates for 2014 Q4 and other recently published statistics.”
“In the second set of estimates, 2014 Q4 real GDP growth came in at +1.5% q-q annualized, and while this was lower than the consensus estimate of +2.2% (the median forecast of forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg), it was close to our prior forecast of +1.7%.”
“Having already lowered our outlook on 16 February 2015 to factor in the first preliminary GDP estimate for 2014 Q4 (+2.2%), we have now revised down our FY14 real GDP growth forecast from -0.8% to -0.9% (for CY14, the second preliminary estimate was -0.0%, versus the first preliminary estimate of +0.0%).”
“For FY15, we have lowered our growth projection from +2.1% to +2.0% because the above lowers the carryover effect (for CY15, we have revised our forecast from +1.3% to +1.2%).”
“We retain our FY16 estimate of +1.8% (we have also made no change to our CY16 estimate).”