20 Feb 2015
UK Q4 GDP to remain unrevised – RBS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Ross Walker, Senior UK Economist at RBS, previews UK Q4 GDP second estimate to be released in the week ahead, expecting minor revisions to main output components but Q4 GDP to stand unrevised.
Key Quotes
“With only minor revisions to the main output components over the past month we expect an unrevised 0.5% q/q GDP outturn in Q4.”
“The main focus will be on the expenditure components, which we expect to look more encouraging than the overall pace of growth – broad-based expansion with investment expenditure rebounding after a lacklustre Q3 outturn and a positive contribution to GDP growth from net exports.”
“Here we expect household consumption to be relatively firm (0.5% q/q), reflecting relatively buoyant retail sector activity and benefiting from low inflation boosting volumes for a given cash-spend. Government consumption expenditure is forecast to be rather lacklustre (0.1% q/q) mirroring the weak output data.”
“We forecast investment spending to pick-up to 0.7% q/q. Monthly trade data show solid goods export volumes and we expect net trade to add around 0.2pp to GDP in Q4.”
“Still, the UK economy lost some momentum in the latter part of 2014 and the MPC has again ‘raised the bar’ by revising up its growth forecasts, so there is little immediate pressure on the Bank to raise interest rates.”
Key Quotes
“With only minor revisions to the main output components over the past month we expect an unrevised 0.5% q/q GDP outturn in Q4.”
“The main focus will be on the expenditure components, which we expect to look more encouraging than the overall pace of growth – broad-based expansion with investment expenditure rebounding after a lacklustre Q3 outturn and a positive contribution to GDP growth from net exports.”
“Here we expect household consumption to be relatively firm (0.5% q/q), reflecting relatively buoyant retail sector activity and benefiting from low inflation boosting volumes for a given cash-spend. Government consumption expenditure is forecast to be rather lacklustre (0.1% q/q) mirroring the weak output data.”
“We forecast investment spending to pick-up to 0.7% q/q. Monthly trade data show solid goods export volumes and we expect net trade to add around 0.2pp to GDP in Q4.”
“Still, the UK economy lost some momentum in the latter part of 2014 and the MPC has again ‘raised the bar’ by revising up its growth forecasts, so there is little immediate pressure on the Bank to raise interest rates.”