19 Feb 2015
What to expect from ECB Minutes? - Rabobank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Elwin de Groot, Senior Eurozone Strategist at Rabobank, previews what could be contained in today’s ECB minutes, mentioning that the accounts are most likely to provide a ‘gist’ of the discussion.
Key Quotes
“we may infer that the accounts are most likely to provide a ‘gist’ of the discussion and could shed more light on whether there was unanimity, consensus or “differing views” with regard to the key topics being discussed. We expect the highlighted qualifiers to become key signaling words.”
“One question that is still open is whether these keywords will be accompanied by a detailed ‘vote count’, similar to what is common practice at the Fed and Bank of England.”
“With regard to the publication of the accounts of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council held on 21 and 22 January 2015, these could perhaps help shed further light on questions such as “why did the Council set the risk-sharing parameter at 20%?””
“Moreover, we are still looking for a clarification as to whether “risk-sharing” is actually “loss-sharing” (both terms were used in the January introductory statement) or should actually be interpreted as “profit and loss sharing”.”
“Other key questions are: “how did the Council arrive at the EUR60bn monthly purchase target?” and “how does it split up to the various asset classes?” (the latter could only be inferred by using several assumptions, such as on the size of ABS/covered bonds purchases).These are obviously just examples and we have to acknowledge that it is not so clear cut as what can be expected.”
“However, what we may safely conclude is that these first accounts will be grabbing some attention from market participants. Their publication is at 1.30 p.m. CET.”
Key Quotes
“we may infer that the accounts are most likely to provide a ‘gist’ of the discussion and could shed more light on whether there was unanimity, consensus or “differing views” with regard to the key topics being discussed. We expect the highlighted qualifiers to become key signaling words.”
“One question that is still open is whether these keywords will be accompanied by a detailed ‘vote count’, similar to what is common practice at the Fed and Bank of England.”
“With regard to the publication of the accounts of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council held on 21 and 22 January 2015, these could perhaps help shed further light on questions such as “why did the Council set the risk-sharing parameter at 20%?””
“Moreover, we are still looking for a clarification as to whether “risk-sharing” is actually “loss-sharing” (both terms were used in the January introductory statement) or should actually be interpreted as “profit and loss sharing”.”
“Other key questions are: “how did the Council arrive at the EUR60bn monthly purchase target?” and “how does it split up to the various asset classes?” (the latter could only be inferred by using several assumptions, such as on the size of ABS/covered bonds purchases).These are obviously just examples and we have to acknowledge that it is not so clear cut as what can be expected.”
“However, what we may safely conclude is that these first accounts will be grabbing some attention from market participants. Their publication is at 1.30 p.m. CET.”