18 Feb 2015
UK unemployment rate might register a decline – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The TD Securities Research Team previews the employment data release in the UK, expecting the unemployment to surprise to the downside by registering a below consensus print at 5.7%.
Key Quotes
“With the claimant count having fallen back toward its lowest level since H1 2008, before the financial crisis got going, the unemployment rate is also set to continue to push lower, and we look for up to a 0.1ppt decline to 5.7% (mkt 5.8%).”
“Wage growth will also be closely, but given base effects we may end up seeing the first backtrack in headline wage growth with a 0.1ppt decline to 1.6% Y/Y after 5 straight months of improvement (mkt 1.7%).”
“The Feb MPC minutes are not expected to bring much new information after the latest QIR. The vote should remain unchanged at 9-0 for now, at least until after CPI has passed its trough.”
Key Quotes
“With the claimant count having fallen back toward its lowest level since H1 2008, before the financial crisis got going, the unemployment rate is also set to continue to push lower, and we look for up to a 0.1ppt decline to 5.7% (mkt 5.8%).”
“Wage growth will also be closely, but given base effects we may end up seeing the first backtrack in headline wage growth with a 0.1ppt decline to 1.6% Y/Y after 5 straight months of improvement (mkt 1.7%).”
“The Feb MPC minutes are not expected to bring much new information after the latest QIR. The vote should remain unchanged at 9-0 for now, at least until after CPI has passed its trough.”