13 Feb 2015
EUR prospects brighten slightly – BTMU
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Derek Halpenny, European Head of GMR at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, shares that with the recent Russia/Ukraine ceasefire and good chances for a deal with Greece, the prospects for EUR brighten slightly.
Key Quotes
“The EUR/USD rate is underpinned at higher levels than this time yesterday after the weaker than expected US retail sales data and the news of a ceasefire deal reached between Russia and Ukraine.”
“German GDP data this morning is also helping with the Q/Q growth rate in Q4 of 0.7% double market expectations. Although France GDP was a mere 0.1%, the euro-zone GDP Q/Q gain could now be a little larger than the expected 0.2% when released later this morning.”
“The good news was that according to the authorities in Germany, growth was driven by domestic demand with both exports and imports growing strongly. Strong import growth and personal consumption would be a sign that Germany was playing more of a role in helping other euro-zone countries out of economic weakness.”
“With the Russia/Ukraine ceasefire and with the likelihood (we feel anyway) of some deal being reached with Greece, the near-term prospects are looking a tad better in Europe for now.”
“That might allow for a further modest correction higher, at least into the semi-annual testimony to Congress by Janet Yellen on 24th February.”
“Speculative short positions versus the US dollar are largest in the euro and hence EUR/USD does look vulnerable to a further temporary upside move.”
Key Quotes
“The EUR/USD rate is underpinned at higher levels than this time yesterday after the weaker than expected US retail sales data and the news of a ceasefire deal reached between Russia and Ukraine.”
“German GDP data this morning is also helping with the Q/Q growth rate in Q4 of 0.7% double market expectations. Although France GDP was a mere 0.1%, the euro-zone GDP Q/Q gain could now be a little larger than the expected 0.2% when released later this morning.”
“The good news was that according to the authorities in Germany, growth was driven by domestic demand with both exports and imports growing strongly. Strong import growth and personal consumption would be a sign that Germany was playing more of a role in helping other euro-zone countries out of economic weakness.”
“With the Russia/Ukraine ceasefire and with the likelihood (we feel anyway) of some deal being reached with Greece, the near-term prospects are looking a tad better in Europe for now.”
“That might allow for a further modest correction higher, at least into the semi-annual testimony to Congress by Janet Yellen on 24th February.”
“Speculative short positions versus the US dollar are largest in the euro and hence EUR/USD does look vulnerable to a further temporary upside move.”