12 Feb 2015
BoE QIR re-confirms the view for a Q1 2016 rate hike – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to Jacqui Douglas, Senior Global Strategist at TD Securities, today’s BOE’s QIR is line in with TD’s view for a Q1 2016 rate hike, with the oil price decline expected to keep the inflation outlook uncertain for a while.
Key Quotes
“With no big surprises here, the BoE’s QIR is in line with our view that the first BoE rate hike will come in Q1 2016.”
“There is no clear urgency to begin raising rates sooner (consensus among economists is still sitting in Q4 2015), as the steep drop in oil prices does leave a considerable amount of uncertainty around the inflation forecast, and that picture will need to become more clear before tightening begins.”
“Plus the BoE’s new CPI forecasts are roughly in line with our own, which see CPI failing to push above the 1% mark until Q1 2016, and we think that it’s highly unlikely the BoE is raising rates at the same time as Governor Carney is still writing letters to the Chancellor to explain why inflation is outside of the 1-3% band.”
Key Quotes
“With no big surprises here, the BoE’s QIR is in line with our view that the first BoE rate hike will come in Q1 2016.”
“There is no clear urgency to begin raising rates sooner (consensus among economists is still sitting in Q4 2015), as the steep drop in oil prices does leave a considerable amount of uncertainty around the inflation forecast, and that picture will need to become more clear before tightening begins.”
“Plus the BoE’s new CPI forecasts are roughly in line with our own, which see CPI failing to push above the 1% mark until Q1 2016, and we think that it’s highly unlikely the BoE is raising rates at the same time as Governor Carney is still writing letters to the Chancellor to explain why inflation is outside of the 1-3% band.”