12 Feb 2015
EUR continuing the seasonal story, use current range as a selling opportunity – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities, comments on the exhibited seasonal movements by the EUR, and further suggests to use these current range-bound trade as a selling opportunity.
Key Quotes
“The EUR picked up a little ground late yesterday on news reports that EU/Greece had reached a bail-out agreement but that was a little premature and it has subsequently emerged that talks will continue through Monday. Ultimately, EURUSD remains very close to the center of the narrow range that has prevailed all week this morning still.”
“We do not think the broader trend up in the USD (generally) is complete but we can observe that the potential for a stabilization in the EUR is supported by seasonal trends in EURUSD.”
“[..] after an initial sell-off in the early part of the calendar year, the EUR tends to move sideways.”
“Last year was not a typical year for the EUR (which tends to rally in Q4, historically); but while the 2014 experience bucked the seasonal trend overall, it did respect the early year pattern of sideways movement and the EUR making a short-term run higher in late March, and retesting those levels in early May, before selling off sharply.”
“The moral of the seasonal story is; have patience; EURUSD may trade 1.12/1.14 for a little longer but we may still get better levels to sell into in the next few weeks.”
Key Quotes
“The EUR picked up a little ground late yesterday on news reports that EU/Greece had reached a bail-out agreement but that was a little premature and it has subsequently emerged that talks will continue through Monday. Ultimately, EURUSD remains very close to the center of the narrow range that has prevailed all week this morning still.”
“We do not think the broader trend up in the USD (generally) is complete but we can observe that the potential for a stabilization in the EUR is supported by seasonal trends in EURUSD.”
“[..] after an initial sell-off in the early part of the calendar year, the EUR tends to move sideways.”
“Last year was not a typical year for the EUR (which tends to rally in Q4, historically); but while the 2014 experience bucked the seasonal trend overall, it did respect the early year pattern of sideways movement and the EUR making a short-term run higher in late March, and retesting those levels in early May, before selling off sharply.”
“The moral of the seasonal story is; have patience; EURUSD may trade 1.12/1.14 for a little longer but we may still get better levels to sell into in the next few weeks.”