11 Feb 2015
USD/CAD poised to take another run at 1.28 – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities, views USD/CAD likely to break above its recent consolidation and make a move towards 1.28 levels.
Key Quotes
“The combination of wider spreads and oil prices slipping back under $50/bbl is kryptonite for the CAD; wider short-term spreads are supportive of the USD moving towards 1.30
“In the near-term, we think; allowing for lower oil prices and assuming steady spreads from last night’s close, our 5-year spread and terms of trade FV model suggests USDCAD FV may be nearer the low/mid 1.27s this morning. “
“Chart-wise, USDCAD looks to be trying to break out of its recent consolidation band and may be poised to take another run at 1.28; we continue to think that USDCAD will make new cycle highs in Q1 before the risk of a deeper consolidation sets in through Q2.”
“We see solid short-term, support at 1.2550/60 now.”
Key Quotes
“The combination of wider spreads and oil prices slipping back under $50/bbl is kryptonite for the CAD; wider short-term spreads are supportive of the USD moving towards 1.30
“In the near-term, we think; allowing for lower oil prices and assuming steady spreads from last night’s close, our 5-year spread and terms of trade FV model suggests USDCAD FV may be nearer the low/mid 1.27s this morning. “
“Chart-wise, USDCAD looks to be trying to break out of its recent consolidation band and may be poised to take another run at 1.28; we continue to think that USDCAD will make new cycle highs in Q1 before the risk of a deeper consolidation sets in through Q2.”
“We see solid short-term, support at 1.2550/60 now.”