11 Feb 2015
Asia Recap: G10 FX in consolidation mode
FXStreet (Bali) - A low key affair in Asia, with the antipodean currencies on 'yo-yo' mode, first testing topside offers before paring most of its daily gains.
AUD/USD continues to trade heavy, presently in a consolidation phase just below 0.78, with the downside so far limited by bids scattered along the 0.7750 periphery. Ahead of Australia's labour data tomorrow, with RBA speakers also in focus, the OIS (overnight index swap) continues to price in 40% chance of a March cut by the RBA, with 78% chance of an April cut. However, since Housing finance for December beat expectations today, which adds to a 13-month high in Westpac's consumer confidence measure, it would be not surprising to see the RBA to remain on hold for a few months.
NZD/USD saw limited participation, a double-sward edge which allowed smoother intraday volatility, with a rise tripping light stops above 0.7440 followed by a retracement which found its max depth at 0.7415 before a consolidation. Today's New Zealand REINZ House Price Index (MoM) remained at -1% in January, while New Zealand FinMin English continued to make comments towards stricter housing lending rules, saying that he supports the idea of the RBNZ using range of macro prudential tools. Judging by the OIS curve, the market is currently neutral on the RBNZ monetary policies for 2015.
USD/JPY was again dominated by buying interest, even with Tokyo off on holidays. The vigorous rally on Tuesday, which found a technical base at 119.25, persisted along Asian hours, with the rate printing a new high of 119.63 amid surging US 10yr yields in the last US session (above 2%) and with encouraging headlines of a potential Greek-EU deal to extend the period of negotiations to reach a new funding agreement, helping risk.
The rest of G10 FX traded without no much activity, with the Euro bizarrely quiet despite all the Greek risk headlines. Today's G20 summit, with additional bilateral discussions between Greece FinMin and EU representative, should see the shared-currency continue to trade without a strong bias, but rather on a headline-by-headline basis. The GBP/USD was heavier in Asia dropping from 1.5265 highs to 1.5238 low ahead of Europe.
Main headlines in Asia
China monetary policy has room for further easing - Securities Journal
New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) climbed from previous 3.5% to 4% in January
New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) declined to -0.4% in January from previous -0.1%
Greece's PM Tsipras: No way the country is going back to bailouts
PM Tsipras: Greek gov’t won't accept troika auditing
EU won't agree on a new Greek deal - German Fin Min Schaeuble
Australia consumer confidence soars to 13-month high
NZ FinMin English: Supports RBNZ using macro-prudential tools
Australia Investment Lending for Homes increased to 6% in December from previous -2.2%
Australia Home Loans came in at 2.7%, above expectations (2%) in December
New Zealand REINZ House Price Index (MoM) remains at -1% in January
AUD/USD continues to trade heavy, presently in a consolidation phase just below 0.78, with the downside so far limited by bids scattered along the 0.7750 periphery. Ahead of Australia's labour data tomorrow, with RBA speakers also in focus, the OIS (overnight index swap) continues to price in 40% chance of a March cut by the RBA, with 78% chance of an April cut. However, since Housing finance for December beat expectations today, which adds to a 13-month high in Westpac's consumer confidence measure, it would be not surprising to see the RBA to remain on hold for a few months.
NZD/USD saw limited participation, a double-sward edge which allowed smoother intraday volatility, with a rise tripping light stops above 0.7440 followed by a retracement which found its max depth at 0.7415 before a consolidation. Today's New Zealand REINZ House Price Index (MoM) remained at -1% in January, while New Zealand FinMin English continued to make comments towards stricter housing lending rules, saying that he supports the idea of the RBNZ using range of macro prudential tools. Judging by the OIS curve, the market is currently neutral on the RBNZ monetary policies for 2015.
USD/JPY was again dominated by buying interest, even with Tokyo off on holidays. The vigorous rally on Tuesday, which found a technical base at 119.25, persisted along Asian hours, with the rate printing a new high of 119.63 amid surging US 10yr yields in the last US session (above 2%) and with encouraging headlines of a potential Greek-EU deal to extend the period of negotiations to reach a new funding agreement, helping risk.
The rest of G10 FX traded without no much activity, with the Euro bizarrely quiet despite all the Greek risk headlines. Today's G20 summit, with additional bilateral discussions between Greece FinMin and EU representative, should see the shared-currency continue to trade without a strong bias, but rather on a headline-by-headline basis. The GBP/USD was heavier in Asia dropping from 1.5265 highs to 1.5238 low ahead of Europe.
Main headlines in Asia
China monetary policy has room for further easing - Securities Journal
New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) climbed from previous 3.5% to 4% in January
New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) declined to -0.4% in January from previous -0.1%
Greece's PM Tsipras: No way the country is going back to bailouts
PM Tsipras: Greek gov’t won't accept troika auditing
EU won't agree on a new Greek deal - German Fin Min Schaeuble
Australia consumer confidence soars to 13-month high
NZ FinMin English: Supports RBNZ using macro-prudential tools
Australia Investment Lending for Homes increased to 6% in December from previous -2.2%
Australia Home Loans came in at 2.7%, above expectations (2%) in December
New Zealand REINZ House Price Index (MoM) remains at -1% in January