4 Jul 2013
Flash: AUD/USD hones on fair-value assessment – Westpac
FXstreet.com (New York) - The AUD/USD fell -12% in Q2 as another RBA rate cut combined with not coincidental softness in key Asian trading partners and a global scramble for USD, notes Sean Callow, a Global FX Strategist at Westpac.
Indeed, “the mood is not much improved for AUD but it is now (finally) close to our estimate of fair value, 0.91-0.9200. While fresh 34 month lows are quite possible near-term, our base case is a period of stabilization and modest gains in AUD/USD, to around 0.9300/50 multiday/ week. Stretched short AUD positioning should help.” Callow adds.
Indeed, “the mood is not much improved for AUD but it is now (finally) close to our estimate of fair value, 0.91-0.9200. While fresh 34 month lows are quite possible near-term, our base case is a period of stabilization and modest gains in AUD/USD, to around 0.9300/50 multiday/ week. Stretched short AUD positioning should help.” Callow adds.