3 Jul 2013
Flash: Functional markets threatened - BTMU
FXstreet.com (London) - Derek Halpenny, Research at The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd comments on NA shift.
He said, with Independence Day tomorrow in the US, this means fully liquid and functioning market conditions will soon come to an end with the ADP and NFP reports either side of closed markets. He highlighted the downside risks for NFP based on weak manufacturing employment but he will have a much better picture after the ADP report.
"With initial claims not falling any more, there certainly seems to have been a slowdown in hiring." He said ADP tends to under-report relative to the private NFP reading with an average lower reading in ADP of 31k over the last 12mths. "So, if replicated this month, the ADP consensus of 160k would equate to around 190K in private NFP which would be a real dollar positive. However, perhaps the ADP consensus is a little high!"
He said, with Independence Day tomorrow in the US, this means fully liquid and functioning market conditions will soon come to an end with the ADP and NFP reports either side of closed markets. He highlighted the downside risks for NFP based on weak manufacturing employment but he will have a much better picture after the ADP report.
"With initial claims not falling any more, there certainly seems to have been a slowdown in hiring." He said ADP tends to under-report relative to the private NFP reading with an average lower reading in ADP of 31k over the last 12mths. "So, if replicated this month, the ADP consensus of 160k would equate to around 190K in private NFP which would be a real dollar positive. However, perhaps the ADP consensus is a little high!"