30 Jan 2015
Busy calendar on Friday - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, breaks down the key events for Friday, noting that a busy calendar is ahead as we head into month end.
Key Quotes
"A busy calendar as we head into month end. Australian private credit will be released at 11:30am Syd. The Westpac forecast is for this to come in a tick lower, at 0.4%, with some loss of momentum associated with softening business confidence."
"In Asia, Japan’s month end reporting include national CPI and IP. Continued commodity price weakness and mildly stronger currency argues for ongoing softening in CPI. The release is at 10:30am Syd/8:30am local, with the market forecasting 2.3% y/y v 2.4% previous. IP, at 10:50am Syd/8:50am local, will be very worth watching as the METI survey was very upbeat for December after the disappointing November outcome. Market expects a 1.2% bounce. We will also see Korea IP at 10am Syd/8am local. The Taiwan Q4 preliminary GDP (7:00pm Syd/5:00pm local) is expected to weaken to 3.25% y/y from 3.63%, waning momentum from the IT product cycle running its course."
"The Eurozone flash CPI is due, and given the low German number, risks are to the downside. The market is expecting -0.5%. Westpac is forecasting a slight fall in Eurozone unemployment, from 11.5% to 11.4%, with lower German and Spanish joblessness offset somewhat by the stagnancy in France."
"Our US advance GDP forecast is in line with market consensus at 3.0%. The Q4 partials – consumer and business spending, and patchy housing market recovery – point to a probable slowdown in growth. The Westpac forecast for the Q4 employment cost index is 0.4% compared to the market’s 0.6% and previous 0.75. While jobless claims data has improved, it has not been driving wage pressures."
Key Quotes
"A busy calendar as we head into month end. Australian private credit will be released at 11:30am Syd. The Westpac forecast is for this to come in a tick lower, at 0.4%, with some loss of momentum associated with softening business confidence."
"In Asia, Japan’s month end reporting include national CPI and IP. Continued commodity price weakness and mildly stronger currency argues for ongoing softening in CPI. The release is at 10:30am Syd/8:30am local, with the market forecasting 2.3% y/y v 2.4% previous. IP, at 10:50am Syd/8:50am local, will be very worth watching as the METI survey was very upbeat for December after the disappointing November outcome. Market expects a 1.2% bounce. We will also see Korea IP at 10am Syd/8am local. The Taiwan Q4 preliminary GDP (7:00pm Syd/5:00pm local) is expected to weaken to 3.25% y/y from 3.63%, waning momentum from the IT product cycle running its course."
"The Eurozone flash CPI is due, and given the low German number, risks are to the downside. The market is expecting -0.5%. Westpac is forecasting a slight fall in Eurozone unemployment, from 11.5% to 11.4%, with lower German and Spanish joblessness offset somewhat by the stagnancy in France."
"Our US advance GDP forecast is in line with market consensus at 3.0%. The Q4 partials – consumer and business spending, and patchy housing market recovery – point to a probable slowdown in growth. The Westpac forecast for the Q4 employment cost index is 0.4% compared to the market’s 0.6% and previous 0.75. While jobless claims data has improved, it has not been driving wage pressures."