29 Jan 2015
Eurozone GDP might register an above consensus growth of 1.5% in 2015 – Danske
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Pernille Bomholdt Nielsen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, expects the ongoing credit growth to boost Euro area growth, expecting eurozone GDP to come out at 1.5% in 2015, above consensus at 1.1%
Key Quotes
“Euro area M3 money supply continued to improve and was a bit above consensus at 3.6% y/y in December after increasing 3.1% y/y in November. It is now increasing at the fastest pace since November 2012.”
“M1 money supply increased 7.8% y/y in December up from 6.9% y/y in November. In real terms it is a good leading indicator for economic activity and it now suggests GDP growth above 0.5% q/q at the beginning of H2.”
“Loans to the private sector increased for the first time since July 2012 (note it is the figure adjusted for sales and securitisation).”
“The progress should continue going forward as the latest bank lending survey showed that demand for credit and loans continued to increase. In our view, this is important for higher credit growth as supply-side constraints are limited after the ECB’s Asset Quality Review and Stress test revealed limited capital shortfalls.”
“Added to this the ECB’s QE programme should contribute to cheaper and more accessible credit to the private sector.”
“Overall, the progress in lending to the private sector supports our view of higher growth in the euro area. We expect GDP growth of 1.5% in 2015, which is above consensus of 1.1%.”
Key Quotes
“Euro area M3 money supply continued to improve and was a bit above consensus at 3.6% y/y in December after increasing 3.1% y/y in November. It is now increasing at the fastest pace since November 2012.”
“M1 money supply increased 7.8% y/y in December up from 6.9% y/y in November. In real terms it is a good leading indicator for economic activity and it now suggests GDP growth above 0.5% q/q at the beginning of H2.”
“Loans to the private sector increased for the first time since July 2012 (note it is the figure adjusted for sales and securitisation).”
“The progress should continue going forward as the latest bank lending survey showed that demand for credit and loans continued to increase. In our view, this is important for higher credit growth as supply-side constraints are limited after the ECB’s Asset Quality Review and Stress test revealed limited capital shortfalls.”
“Added to this the ECB’s QE programme should contribute to cheaper and more accessible credit to the private sector.”
“Overall, the progress in lending to the private sector supports our view of higher growth in the euro area. We expect GDP growth of 1.5% in 2015, which is above consensus of 1.1%.”