5 Jan 2015
Friday’s US NFP print may come out strong – Nomura
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Research Analysts at Nomura anticipate the US nonfarm payrolls to register a print of 250k, with the recent US data suggesting that the payrolls might increase at a solid pace.
Key Quotes
“Incoming data have been mixed in December, but on balance, still suggest that payrolls increased at a solid pace, though not as strong as the +300k gain seen in November.”
“On one hand, initial jobless and continuing claims are near pre-recession levels and the consumers responding to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey in early December continued to be optimistic about the labor market and future income gains. But on the other hand, the regional manufacturing surveys released in December have been weaker, suggesting that manufacturing jobs probably grew at a slower rate compared with the strong gains in the past couple of months.”
“Based on readings of these labor market indicators in December, we forecast a 240k increase in private payrolls, with a 10k increase in government jobs, implying that total nonfarm payrolls will gain 250k.”
“Reports suggest that some companies planned to hire more seasonal workers this year than in the past. We already saw some indication of this in the November employment report, in which retail employment saw strong gains.”
“However, we have yet to see any jump in courier and messenger employment. So it is possible this is realized in the December numbers, raising the upside risk to our forecast.”
Key Quotes
“Incoming data have been mixed in December, but on balance, still suggest that payrolls increased at a solid pace, though not as strong as the +300k gain seen in November.”
“On one hand, initial jobless and continuing claims are near pre-recession levels and the consumers responding to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey in early December continued to be optimistic about the labor market and future income gains. But on the other hand, the regional manufacturing surveys released in December have been weaker, suggesting that manufacturing jobs probably grew at a slower rate compared with the strong gains in the past couple of months.”
“Based on readings of these labor market indicators in December, we forecast a 240k increase in private payrolls, with a 10k increase in government jobs, implying that total nonfarm payrolls will gain 250k.”
“Reports suggest that some companies planned to hire more seasonal workers this year than in the past. We already saw some indication of this in the November employment report, in which retail employment saw strong gains.”
“However, we have yet to see any jump in courier and messenger employment. So it is possible this is realized in the December numbers, raising the upside risk to our forecast.”