23 Dec 2014
Finally bullish USD bets pay off - Rabobank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank look into the EUR/USD and suggest there will not be a Fed hime until end of 2015 at least.
Key Quotes:
“One year ago the EUR/USD spot rate was positioned at 1.37 and the market consensus for the 12-month forecast stood at 1.28”.
“Having turned bullish on the USD at the end of last year, our 12-month forecast at EUR/USD1.27 was on the right side of the consensus”.
“However, it clearly failed to capture the full extent of the dollar rally that would gather pace during the second half of the year”.
“Going forward we anticipate that the USD will continue to outpace the EUR. That said, our forecast that EUR/USD will stand close to the 1.20 area on a 12 mth view is once again not an aggressive call and stands north of the current market consensus of a move to EUR/USD1.18 on a 12 mth view”.
“In part our EUR/USD forecast reflects our view that the Fed will not hike interest rates until the end of 2015, later than the market consensus”.
“It also reflects our view that the EUR may not fall aggressively if the ECB announces full blown QE as we expect in Q1”.
Key Quotes:
“One year ago the EUR/USD spot rate was positioned at 1.37 and the market consensus for the 12-month forecast stood at 1.28”.
“Having turned bullish on the USD at the end of last year, our 12-month forecast at EUR/USD1.27 was on the right side of the consensus”.
“However, it clearly failed to capture the full extent of the dollar rally that would gather pace during the second half of the year”.
“Going forward we anticipate that the USD will continue to outpace the EUR. That said, our forecast that EUR/USD will stand close to the 1.20 area on a 12 mth view is once again not an aggressive call and stands north of the current market consensus of a move to EUR/USD1.18 on a 12 mth view”.
“In part our EUR/USD forecast reflects our view that the Fed will not hike interest rates until the end of 2015, later than the market consensus”.
“It also reflects our view that the EUR may not fall aggressively if the ECB announces full blown QE as we expect in Q1”.