9 Dec 2014
German exports drop only marginally in October – ING
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The ING Team believes that the recent marginal drop in Germany’s export reasserts Germany’s rebound.
Key Quotes
“More evidence for Germany’s rebound. October trade data just added to recent evidence that the Eurozone’s largest economy gained some momentum at the start of the fourth quarter. Exports dropped by only 0.5% MoM, from a strong +5.5% MoM in September. As imports dropped by 3.1% MoM, the seasonally-adjusted trade balance improved to 20.6 bn euro, from 18.6bn in September.”
“The trade balance with Germany’s Eurozone peers was only slightly positive and exports to the rest of the Eurozone are only up 1.9% YoY. The fact that German exports to non-Eurozone countries are up by around 7% on the year illustrates the economy’s gradual decoupling from the rest of the Eurozone.”
“German exporters are normally amongst the main European beneficiaries from a weaker currency. Interestingly, over the last twenty years, German exports to non-Eurozone countries have shown a rather unique correlation with exchange rate movements. Relatively immune against currency strengthening but strongly benefitting from currency weakening. A lucky pattern not all Eurozone countries have experienced.”
Key Quotes
“More evidence for Germany’s rebound. October trade data just added to recent evidence that the Eurozone’s largest economy gained some momentum at the start of the fourth quarter. Exports dropped by only 0.5% MoM, from a strong +5.5% MoM in September. As imports dropped by 3.1% MoM, the seasonally-adjusted trade balance improved to 20.6 bn euro, from 18.6bn in September.”
“The trade balance with Germany’s Eurozone peers was only slightly positive and exports to the rest of the Eurozone are only up 1.9% YoY. The fact that German exports to non-Eurozone countries are up by around 7% on the year illustrates the economy’s gradual decoupling from the rest of the Eurozone.”
“German exporters are normally amongst the main European beneficiaries from a weaker currency. Interestingly, over the last twenty years, German exports to non-Eurozone countries have shown a rather unique correlation with exchange rate movements. Relatively immune against currency strengthening but strongly benefitting from currency weakening. A lucky pattern not all Eurozone countries have experienced.”