9 Dec 2014
Energy sector concerns weigh on AUD - RBS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The RBS Research Team notes that weaker fiscal outlook is in sight for AUD as emerging gas exports is likely to be soft.
Key Quotes
“The energy sector continues to drag on the AUD, weakening the outlook for its emerging gas export sector just as it is about to move into production, contributing to a weaker fiscal outlook. Australian business and consumer confidence have ebbed and rate cut speculation is rife.”
“In contrast, 2yr swap rates in the US have rebounded to highs since 2011 and remain elevated since the US payrolls report last week, despite some modest risk aversion. Press speculation has started that the FOMC will drop its ‘considerable” time language next week, firming up expectations of a rate hike around mid-2015, with increased risk of sooner.”
“NZD has been dragged down by an expected downgrade to the pay-out rate for dairy farmers, and this should also dampen the RBNZ outlook somewhat in its policy statement on Thursday.”
Key Quotes
“The energy sector continues to drag on the AUD, weakening the outlook for its emerging gas export sector just as it is about to move into production, contributing to a weaker fiscal outlook. Australian business and consumer confidence have ebbed and rate cut speculation is rife.”
“In contrast, 2yr swap rates in the US have rebounded to highs since 2011 and remain elevated since the US payrolls report last week, despite some modest risk aversion. Press speculation has started that the FOMC will drop its ‘considerable” time language next week, firming up expectations of a rate hike around mid-2015, with increased risk of sooner.”
“NZD has been dragged down by an expected downgrade to the pay-out rate for dairy farmers, and this should also dampen the RBNZ outlook somewhat in its policy statement on Thursday.”