8 Dec 2014
Strong US job gains, but not indicative of a new trend rate – Wells Fargo
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Economists at Wells Fargo note that November registered another solid gain in jobs of 321,000, with growth across the board, but the strong number may not indicate the start of a new 300,000+ trend.
Key Quotes
“Nonfarm payrolls rose by 321,000, the strongest monthly gain in nearly three years. While the November number is unlikely to be the start of a 300,000+ trend, it shows the general pace of hiring remains strong and the labor market is quickly improving. Over the past three months, job gains have averaged 278,000 per month.”
“Job gains were broadly based, with no major industry registering a decline this month or over the past year.”
“Retail hiring rose 50,000, significantly higher than the industry’s 12-month average of 22,000. More of the typical end-of-year surge in retail hiring may have been moved into November as the kickoff to the holiday shopping season moves earlier, and may set December up for a disappointing number.”
“A look at the more volatile household survey showed full-time employment actually fell in November by 150,000, but it is up by an average of 289,000 over the past three months. Part-time employment, on the other hand, rose by 77,000 in November.”
“Broad-based gains in jobs and average weekly hours in the private sector indicate continued improvement in overall economic growth. This supports our outlook for continued strengthening in the economy.”
“Our expectation is for economic growth for the next four quarters at a pace near potential growth of 2.75 percent and, thereby, we also see a decline in the unemployment rate going forward.”
Key Quotes
“Nonfarm payrolls rose by 321,000, the strongest monthly gain in nearly three years. While the November number is unlikely to be the start of a 300,000+ trend, it shows the general pace of hiring remains strong and the labor market is quickly improving. Over the past three months, job gains have averaged 278,000 per month.”
“Job gains were broadly based, with no major industry registering a decline this month or over the past year.”
“Retail hiring rose 50,000, significantly higher than the industry’s 12-month average of 22,000. More of the typical end-of-year surge in retail hiring may have been moved into November as the kickoff to the holiday shopping season moves earlier, and may set December up for a disappointing number.”
“A look at the more volatile household survey showed full-time employment actually fell in November by 150,000, but it is up by an average of 289,000 over the past three months. Part-time employment, on the other hand, rose by 77,000 in November.”
“Broad-based gains in jobs and average weekly hours in the private sector indicate continued improvement in overall economic growth. This supports our outlook for continued strengthening in the economy.”
“Our expectation is for economic growth for the next four quarters at a pace near potential growth of 2.75 percent and, thereby, we also see a decline in the unemployment rate going forward.”