5 Dec 2014
China: November trade data preview - ING
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at ING Bank have revised their forecasts on the USD/CNY noting Novembers trade data coming up next week.
“We expect the full-year surplus to be a record US dollar amount, though not in
relation to GDP”.
“We have revised our end-2014 USD/CNY forecast to 6.14 from 6.09. November trade data are due on Monday around 10am local time”.
“The consensus forecast for export growth is 8.1% YoY (prior 11.6%) and for import growth, 4.0% (prior 4.6%). The forecast for the trade surplus is $44.5 billion (prior $45.44 billion). If it materializes it would put the year-to-date surplus at $313.7 billion or $80 billion wider on the year”.
“We expect the full-year surplus to be a record US dollar amount, though not in relation to GDP (first figure). It’s coming from import compression. Import growth was 1.7% YoY YTD in October, down from 7.2% in 2013. Export growth has slowed much less, to 5.8% from 7.8%”.
“We have revised our yearend forecast for USD/CNY to 6.14 from 6.09 (latest 6.155, Bloomberg consensus 6.120, NDF 6.137). Our baseline scenario is the PBoC will continue to fix in a relatively tight range, possibly slightly lower than the 6.14-6.17 that prevailed for the last eight months”.
“However, a policy of CNY depreciation would be at odds with the authorities’ objective of internationalizing the currency. Our end-2015 forecast is 6.08 (Bloomberg consensus 5.90, NDF 6.38)”.
“We expect the full-year surplus to be a record US dollar amount, though not in
relation to GDP”.
“We have revised our end-2014 USD/CNY forecast to 6.14 from 6.09. November trade data are due on Monday around 10am local time”.
“The consensus forecast for export growth is 8.1% YoY (prior 11.6%) and for import growth, 4.0% (prior 4.6%). The forecast for the trade surplus is $44.5 billion (prior $45.44 billion). If it materializes it would put the year-to-date surplus at $313.7 billion or $80 billion wider on the year”.
“We expect the full-year surplus to be a record US dollar amount, though not in relation to GDP (first figure). It’s coming from import compression. Import growth was 1.7% YoY YTD in October, down from 7.2% in 2013. Export growth has slowed much less, to 5.8% from 7.8%”.
“We have revised our yearend forecast for USD/CNY to 6.14 from 6.09 (latest 6.155, Bloomberg consensus 6.120, NDF 6.137). Our baseline scenario is the PBoC will continue to fix in a relatively tight range, possibly slightly lower than the 6.14-6.17 that prevailed for the last eight months”.
“However, a policy of CNY depreciation would be at odds with the authorities’ objective of internationalizing the currency. Our end-2015 forecast is 6.08 (Bloomberg consensus 5.90, NDF 6.38)”.