3 Dec 2014
Expect EUR to target 1.1800 – Scotiabank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, anticipates EUR/USD to trend lower and targets 1.1800 levels into 2015 year-end.
Key Quotes
“EUR has lost 0.5% into the NA open, with the weakness coming mid‐way through the European session as anticipation over Thursday’s ECB meeting builds pressuring EUR and bond yields lower.”
”A soft services PMI and retail sales added to the weakness but were released well after EUR dropped through its previous support levels at 1.2358.”
“As lower oil prices pressure the outlook for European inflation lower and the fundamentals fail to improve, the ECB will be tested in its policy response. We expect a dovish sounding President Draghi tomorrow; but a failure to turn to more accommodative policy (yet).”
“We expect EUR to trend lower, calling for a 2015 year‐end target of 1.1800—below the 2012 lows of 1.2043 and the 2010 lows of 1.1877.”
“EURUSD short‐term technicals: bearish—after having been mixed for several sessions, short‐term technicals have turned bearish. Spot has dropped through support at the previous low of 1.2358, the downward trend is intact, the MACD has shifted to a sell signal and moving averages continue to highlight downward pressure. The next level of support is 1.2300; technicals warn of a near‐term push below and into the 1.22s.”
Key Quotes
“EUR has lost 0.5% into the NA open, with the weakness coming mid‐way through the European session as anticipation over Thursday’s ECB meeting builds pressuring EUR and bond yields lower.”
”A soft services PMI and retail sales added to the weakness but were released well after EUR dropped through its previous support levels at 1.2358.”
“As lower oil prices pressure the outlook for European inflation lower and the fundamentals fail to improve, the ECB will be tested in its policy response. We expect a dovish sounding President Draghi tomorrow; but a failure to turn to more accommodative policy (yet).”
“We expect EUR to trend lower, calling for a 2015 year‐end target of 1.1800—below the 2012 lows of 1.2043 and the 2010 lows of 1.1877.”
“EURUSD short‐term technicals: bearish—after having been mixed for several sessions, short‐term technicals have turned bearish. Spot has dropped through support at the previous low of 1.2358, the downward trend is intact, the MACD has shifted to a sell signal and moving averages continue to highlight downward pressure. The next level of support is 1.2300; technicals warn of a near‐term push below and into the 1.22s.”