1 Dec 2014
RBI to keep rates unchanged, with rising risks of a surprise – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Cristian Maggio, Head of Emerging Markets Research at TD Securities, expects the Reserve Bank of India’s Governer Rajan to keep the key rates unchanged and announce the achievement of the 8% CPI target tomorrow.
Key Quotes
“The Reserve bank of India will announce their rate decision tomorrow and we expect Governor Rajan to keep the key rates on hold (repo at 8.00% and CRR at 4.00%). This view is in line with the almost unanimous consensus expectations, but we see increasing risks that a surprise cut may also occur.”
“The reason for potential easing of policy rates is essentially related to the inflation dynamic, which has been a lot more benign than we had initially expected. This reflects in both a resumption to normal levels of precipitations in the latter months of the summer monsoon season, and the plunge in crude oil prices since July.”
“In tomorrow’s announcement, rather than a surprise cut, we expect the RBI to communicate more comfort with the achievement of the short-term target of 8% for CPI. The target for January 2016 is 6%, which also seems attainable and which will eventually determine the decision to cut rates in 2015.”
“If we are right, the decision to hold may give temporary respite to the INR, which has been weakening in line with the general trend in EM FX since July and is currently trading at 62.09 to the dollar, 2% above our Q4 forecast of 60.9.”
“Rather than with outright longs to the USD, we continue to express our positive view on INR through long INR/KRW in 1m NDFs (target at 19.00), and our oil basket trade (long THB, INR, PHP, TRY—short COP, MXN, BRL) that has gained approx. 2% in spot since November 27.”
Key Quotes
“The Reserve bank of India will announce their rate decision tomorrow and we expect Governor Rajan to keep the key rates on hold (repo at 8.00% and CRR at 4.00%). This view is in line with the almost unanimous consensus expectations, but we see increasing risks that a surprise cut may also occur.”
“The reason for potential easing of policy rates is essentially related to the inflation dynamic, which has been a lot more benign than we had initially expected. This reflects in both a resumption to normal levels of precipitations in the latter months of the summer monsoon season, and the plunge in crude oil prices since July.”
“In tomorrow’s announcement, rather than a surprise cut, we expect the RBI to communicate more comfort with the achievement of the short-term target of 8% for CPI. The target for January 2016 is 6%, which also seems attainable and which will eventually determine the decision to cut rates in 2015.”
“If we are right, the decision to hold may give temporary respite to the INR, which has been weakening in line with the general trend in EM FX since July and is currently trading at 62.09 to the dollar, 2% above our Q4 forecast of 60.9.”
“Rather than with outright longs to the USD, we continue to express our positive view on INR through long INR/KRW in 1m NDFs (target at 19.00), and our oil basket trade (long THB, INR, PHP, TRY—short COP, MXN, BRL) that has gained approx. 2% in spot since November 27.”