1 Dec 2014
A very busy week of Australian data - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - A very busy week of Australian data and events (RBA meeting) ahead, notes Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac.
Key Quotes
"We will see the Nov TD Sec inflation gauge and Nov AIG PMI but most interest is in Q3 company profits and business inventories (11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK), to help guide expectations for Wed’s GDP data. Most potential to alter GDP forecasts lies in business inventories. We look for a flat q/q reading, which would mean -0.3ppt detraction from Q3 GDP. The median forecast is 0.2% q/q. We expect company profits to have risen 1% q/q (median -1.3%) but this headline always needs adjustment to derive the national accounts implications so it would be unwise to trade AUD on it."
"There is potential for upward revision to Japan’s weak advance Q3 GDP report in the capex survey (10:50am Syd/7:50am Sing/HK). Consensus is 1.8% y/y. A slew of Nov PMIs are due in the region. Most interest will be in China’s official manufacturing PMI, at 12pm Syd/9am local. The median forecast is 50.5, from 50.8 in Oct, while 45 minutes later it’s the final Nov reading on the HSBC/Markit version, with the ‘flash’ estimate 50.0, risking a nasty headline downward revision. Thailand and Indonesia release Nov CPI."
"Final readings on European Nov PMIs are due, along with the US Nov manufacturing ISM. This report has been so strong for so long, markets seem to take it for granted, limiting impact on USD. Consensus is 58.0 versus a booming 59.0 in Oct."
Key Quotes
"We will see the Nov TD Sec inflation gauge and Nov AIG PMI but most interest is in Q3 company profits and business inventories (11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK), to help guide expectations for Wed’s GDP data. Most potential to alter GDP forecasts lies in business inventories. We look for a flat q/q reading, which would mean -0.3ppt detraction from Q3 GDP. The median forecast is 0.2% q/q. We expect company profits to have risen 1% q/q (median -1.3%) but this headline always needs adjustment to derive the national accounts implications so it would be unwise to trade AUD on it."
"There is potential for upward revision to Japan’s weak advance Q3 GDP report in the capex survey (10:50am Syd/7:50am Sing/HK). Consensus is 1.8% y/y. A slew of Nov PMIs are due in the region. Most interest will be in China’s official manufacturing PMI, at 12pm Syd/9am local. The median forecast is 50.5, from 50.8 in Oct, while 45 minutes later it’s the final Nov reading on the HSBC/Markit version, with the ‘flash’ estimate 50.0, risking a nasty headline downward revision. Thailand and Indonesia release Nov CPI."
"Final readings on European Nov PMIs are due, along with the US Nov manufacturing ISM. This report has been so strong for so long, markets seem to take it for granted, limiting impact on USD. Consensus is 58.0 versus a booming 59.0 in Oct."