6 Jun 2013
Flash: ECB Q&A expectations – TD Securities
FXstreet.com (London) - TD Securities commented on their expectations for the Q&A session after the release of the ECB decision.
The teams in research at TD Securities said that during the Q&E, Draghi likely does not want to dampen expectations in the market that the ECB stands ready to act, but they see little that he can add other than reiterate what is already on offer. Meanwhile, they explained that while 2013 GDP and inflation forecasts should be revised lower, 2014 is likely to be little changed. And in fact, they said, Eurozone data over the last month has been slightly better than expected. This will make it difficult for Draghi to maintain easing expectations at the same level while suggesting even marginally better data. Hence, they expect small moves but risks are for EUR/USD and rates, particularly 1y and 2y forward, to drift higher on the message.
The teams in research at TD Securities said that during the Q&E, Draghi likely does not want to dampen expectations in the market that the ECB stands ready to act, but they see little that he can add other than reiterate what is already on offer. Meanwhile, they explained that while 2013 GDP and inflation forecasts should be revised lower, 2014 is likely to be little changed. And in fact, they said, Eurozone data over the last month has been slightly better than expected. This will make it difficult for Draghi to maintain easing expectations at the same level while suggesting even marginally better data. Hence, they expect small moves but risks are for EUR/USD and rates, particularly 1y and 2y forward, to drift higher on the message.