WTI declines as Israel-Lebanon ceasefire eases tensions in the Middle East

• WTI falls nearly 3% as the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire boosts hopes for progress in US-Iran talks.
• The IMF says the war in Iran has cut global Oil production by around 14 million barrels per day.
• Fitch cuts its 2026 global growth forecast due to the Oil crisis.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil slips nearly 3% on Thursday as market sentiment improves following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon. At the time of writing, WTI trades around $91 per barrel, snapping a three-day winning streak.

The ceasefire, announced by the United States, removes a key sticking point in the US-Iran negotiations and raises hopes that talks between the two sides could regain momentum.

However, the downside in Oil prices may remain limited unless both sides make meaningful progress toward a deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This critical chokepoint handles 20% of global Oil shipments.

The Iran war has created a significant supply shock. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the war has cut global Oil production by around 14 million barrels per day.

The Fund also warned that global Oil inventories could fall to a five-year low of 7.5 billion barrels in July, down from 8 billion barrels before the war began.

The IMF noted that Oil prices remain about 3% above the levels assumed in its April forecast for 3.1% global growth and said future prices will depend on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings said in its latest Global Economic Outlook that it has cut its 2026 global growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 2.4% due to the Oil crisis.