BoJ Preview: Any hawkish surprise in communication to push USD/JPY close to the 140 support – ING

The Bank of Japan has started its two-day meeting. Economists at ING analyze Yen’s outlook ahead of the Monetary Policy Statement.

An unchanged message can bring USD/JPY back to 145

The language at this meeting will be key for the short-term performance of the Yen.

We are still leaning toward 2Q24 for the first hike, and if that is the preference of the BoJ as well, then it may be too early for a real change in the dovish message later, and the Yen risks a downward correction. However, the chances of a hike in January when new economic projections are released are non-negligible and depend on data as well as on JPY performance.

Expect any hawkish surprise in communication to push USD/JPY close to the 140 support, whereas an unchanged message can bring the pair back to 145, where we could see selling interest if the Dollar momentum proves soft.