USD lower will lift all boats including the GBP but it will probably lag peers – TDS

The Bank of England (BoE) kept policy rates unchanged with a 6:3 vote. GBP is extending gains after the “Old Lady” retained hawkish undertones in the statement. Economists at TD Securities analyze Sterling’s outlook.

Relative interest rate differentials can support GBP vs. the currencies of more dovish central banks in the G10 space

BoE kept rates on hold as expected but with hawkish undertones keeping language around a tightening bias. The statement reflects higher for longer along with concerns around sticky services inflation and wage growth. This is supporting the GBP especially as this contrasts with the dovish Fed. Relative interest rate differentials can support GBP vs. the currencies of more dovish central banks in the G10 space. 

USD lower will lift all boats including the GBP but we expect it to lag high carry EM peers and JPY.