December seasonality bearish Dollar and Treasuries – SocGen

Bond markets finished November with a flourish. Economists at Société Générale analyze December’s seasonality. 

Seasonality could spoil year-end bond rally

Stretched technicals and the bearish turn in bond seasonals could prompt investors to lock in profits in case yields back up in December. This may, however, not be enough to lift the Dollar off the lows. 

Seasonals are bearish USD in December against a range of currencies.

Average decline DXY last 10 years is 0.8%, seasonals bullish Euro, SEK, GBP, CHF, CEE, KRW. Mixed AUD, CAD, JPY, MXN, ZAR, INR.