OBR forecasts show 2023 GDP growth of 0.6% vs. -0.2% previous forecast

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) published its latest "economic and fiscal outlook” on the economy, with the key insights found below.

Headline debt predicted to be 94% of GDP by end of forecast.

We meet our fiscal rule to have underlying debt falling as percent of GDP by final year of forecast with double headroom.

OBR forecasts 2023/24 underlying public debt to GDP ratio of 91.6% (March forecast 92.4%).

OBR forecasts 2024/25 underlying public debt to GDP ratio of 92.7% (March forecast 93.7%).

OBR shows borrowing to be lower this year and next.

OBR forecasts show 2023/24 budget deficit of 4.5% of GDP (march forecast 5.1% of GDP).

OBR forecasts show 2024/25 budget deficit of 3% of GDP (march forecast 3.2% of GDP).

OBR forecasts show 2025/26 budget deficit of 2.2% of GDP (march forecast 2.8% of GDP).

OBR forecasts show 2027/28 budget deficit of 1.6% of GDP (March forecast 1.7% of GDP).

OBR forecasts show 2028/29 budget deficit of 1.1% of GDP.

OBR forecasts show 2023 GDP growth of 0.6% (March forecast -0.2%).

PBR forecasts show 2024 GDP growth of 0.7% (March forecast 1.8%).

OBR forecasts show 2025 GDP growth of 1.4 (March forecast 2.5%).

OBR forecasts show 2026 GDP growth of 1.9% (March forecast 2.1%).

OBR forecasts show 2027 GDP growth of 2% (March forecast 1.9%).

OBR forecasts show 2028 GDP growth of 1.7%.

Market reaction

GBP/USD is shrugging off the above forecasts, currently trading flat at 1.2535.