USD/MXN: Year-end and Q1 2024 forecasts at 18.00 and 18.50 – CIBC

Economists at CIBC Capital Markets maintain their USD/MXN year-end and Q1 2024 forecasts at 18.00 and 18.50, respectively.

Popular carry trades back in the spotlight

We recognize that the early November retreat in UST yields following Fed Chair Powell’s reference to a higher potential output (which was interpreted as a hint to a higher bar for further monetary tightening), put popular carry trades back in the spotlight. However, we don't see that move as one that could be sustained into the rest of the year. 

In the case of the MXN, we continue to disagree with the cautious pricing of Banxico's monetary policy easing path in 2024, while we expect US sectors sensitive to high interest rates (i.e. construction and manufacturing) to exert downward pressures on remittances to Mexico going forward. 

Hence, we maintain our USD/MXN year-end and Q1 2024 forecasts at 18.00 and 18.50, respectively.