EUR/PLN seen at 4.35 by year-end – SocGen

Economists at Société Générale analyze EUR/PLN outlook ahead of central bank meeting in Poland. 

Poland CB forecast to cut 25 bps

We pencil in a 25 bps rate cut today in Poland to 5.50% after inflation slowed to 6.5% in October from a peak of 18.4% in February. This should cede the advantage to the NBP doves. Our house view subsequently is for a status quo until June 2024. 

We remain upbeat on the PLN vis-à-vis other CEE4 currencies in the aftermath of the general election and looming transfer of nearly €35bn of EU funds. 

Our revised forecast for EUR/PLN by year-end is 4.35 vs. 4.60 previously.