BoJ: Positive effect on the Yen of adjusting yield target to the upside might evaporate quickly – Commerzbank

After USD/JPY breached the psychological mark of 150 at least on a temporary basis, Tuesday’s BoJ meeting has become a little more interesting. Antje Praefcke, FX Analyst at Commerzbank, analyze Yen’s outlook ahead of the Monetary Policy Statement .

BoJ will leave its monetary policy unchanged

Pressure on the BoJ to make changes is mounting. However, it is questionable whether it will give in to this pressure this week. The BoJ has proven in the past that it can surprise the markets, but it has also illustrated that it finds it very, very difficult to exit its ultra-expansionary monetary policy. I therefore think that it will leave its monetary policy unchanged on Tuesday.

If it brings itself to adjust its yield target to the upside after all that would initially be positive for the Yen, but as happened before, the effect might evaporate again quickly if the market considers it to be mainly a reaction to current conditions and less as a first step towards an exit.