Downward pressure on the USD if market expectations move toward the Fed – Commerzbank

The main focus today will be on the Federal Reserve’s decision. The market is interested in what the new expectations of the FOMC members for the key rate signal for the coming quarters. Economists at Commerzbank analyze how the so-called dot plots could impact the Dollar.

Little potential for USD uptrend if the Fed moves in the direction of the market

At present the market expectations are even a little more hawkish than those of the Fed. If the Fed moves in the direction of the market, I see little potential for an uptrend in the Dollar though as in my view a lot of ‘higher for longer’ has already been priced in. 

If, on the other hand, the market moves toward the Fed, this could put downward pressure on the Dollar.

See – Fed Preview: Forecasts from 15 major banks, a pause, but the end of rate hikes?