Forint to underperform in the medium-term – Commerzbank

The Forint rallied strongly earlier this month. Economists at Commerzbank analyze HUF outlook.

The Forint is benefitting from the Zloty’s misery

The Forint is rallying as a technical counterpart to a depreciating Polish Zloty. This happens because institutions frequently trade these two as a relative-value pair. 

We forecast the Forint to regain more ground by the end of the year because inflation is likely to moderate faster than the pace at which MNB will cut rates, and the real interest rate will therefore become less negative – in this window, we see EUR/HUF in the 375 range. But, we forecast a weaker Forint subsequently in 2024.

Source: Commerzbank Research