AUD/USD: Reaching the 0.69 year-end target will be a challenge – Scotiabank

The AUD remains something of a laggard among G10 currencies so far this year. Economists at Scotiabank analyze Aussie’s outlook.

RBA tightening cycle may have peaked at 4.10%

The RBA tightening cycle may have peaked at 4.10%, with policymakers perhaps concerned that the passthrough of higher mortgage rates will slow the domestic economy. 

Soft regional growth trends (China) and a weak Yuan have weighed on the AUD sentiment and speculative positioning has been persistently bearish in recent months. 

Meaningful China stimulus would be a major plus for the AUD but, in the absence of more positive drivers, reaching our 0.69 year-end target will be a challenge.