No good reasons now to trade the Euro weaker based on the expectations of future monetary policy – Commerzbank

The ECB hiked the key rate by 25 bps to 4.0%. Antje Praefcke, FX Analyst at Commerzbank expects the Euro to turn back higher.

Euro to appreciate again

I think there are no good reasons now to trade the Euro weaker based on the expectations of future monetary policy. On the contrary: if it turns out that, contrary to market expectations, the ECB will not cut rates next year, as our experts project, and the economy shows resilience as the ECB expects, the market would have to adjust its expectations, which would allow the EUR to appreciate again.

The price and economic data over the coming months will provide more of an insight. For now, the FX market will focus on the Fed though – the next major event in the diary.