USD/RUB: The calmer exchange rate is one argument in favour of a CBR pause – Commerzbank

The Russian Central Bank (CBR) will hold another rate meeting today. Economists at Commerzbank discuss RUB’s outlook ahead of the Interest Rate Decision.

Possibility of status quo on rates

There is no longer the sense of something being ‘out of control’ or ‘blowing up’ like it was a month ago. The calmer exchange rate is one argument in favour of a CBR pause.

Most pointers would be towards an unchanged rate today; except the broad argument that CBR tends to keep hiking rates until all developments in the direction of greater inflation risk have been eliminated. It remains a close call.