NZD/USD: Q4 forecast revised lower to 0.56 – CIBC

NZD, like other commodity currencies, was hit in August given the weak backdrop in risk markets. Economists at CIBC Capital Markets analyze Kiwi’s outlook.

Fiscal and monetary policy outlooks are back in focus

We have revised our Q4 forecast for NZD/USD lower given the weak Chinese growth outlook and risks to global growth in general. Further, the higher for longer USD narrative should hurt the high beta Kiwi heading into year-end. 

With fiscal and monetary policy outlooks back in the spotlight, there is likely to be more domestically sourced NZD/USD volatility through the end of the year.

NZD/USD – Q4 2023: 0.56 | Q1 2024: 0.58