EUR/SEK: Great chances of a gradual decline into year-end – ING

The Swedish Krona is emerging as an outperformer this week. Economists at ING analyze EUR/SEK outlook.

Break above 12.00 is not the baseline scenario

EUR/SEK had risen above 11.90 and eyed 12.00, reaching new highs last week, and we suspect this week’s correction is primarily technically driven.

Keep a close eye on today’s Nvidia quarterly results. SEK is generally the most correlated G10 currency with US tech stocks. A disappointment on that side could trigger another EUR/SEK rally, even though some EUR softness is now helping put a cap on the pair. 

For the moment, a break above 12.00 is not our baseline scenario, and we see instead greater chances of a gradual – although bumpy – decline in the pair into year-end.