The recent weakness in spot CNY reflects a tightening in USD liquidity – ANZ

The deluge of US Dollars over the past few years has contributed to the development of China’s domestic FX market. Economists at ANZ Bank gauge USD inflows.

Federal Reserve set to keep interest rate “higher for longer”

We have established an indicator to capture USD flows to China’s onshore FX market, which shows net USD50bn of outflows in recent months. This has increased both USD liquidity tightness and CNY depreciation risk.

Recent USD outflows are mainly due to corporate actions. Higher USD funding costs prompt corporates to repay rather than roll over USD-denominated debt. At the same time, cheaper RMB funding costs also reduces the need to sell more USD.

We do not expect a turnaround in USD flows in the near term. Corporates will continue to deleverage as the US Federal Reserve is set to keep interest rate ‘higher for longer’.