USD/CNY to stay beyond 7.10 through Q3 before falling back to just below 7 in Q4 – Commerzbank

The Yuan has weakened in recent weeks. Economists at Commerzbank share their USD/CNY and EUR/CNY forecasts. 

Weakness to stay in the near term

We forecast USD/CNY to stay beyond 7.10 through Q3 before falling back to below the key 7 mark due to the anticipated softening of the Dollar.

Beyond the near term, CNY will strengthen modestly against USD, supported by the expected softening of the Dollar as we anticipate the Fed to cut its key interest rate from the beginning of 2024.

EUR/CNY will likely rise in the near term due to further tightening of ECB monetary policy for the time being.

Source: Commerzbank Research