USD/RUB: Ruble to weaken medium-term due to declining current account surplus – Commerzbank

Economists at Commerzbank see the USD/RUB pair at 80 by year-end and at 90 by December 2024.

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“Russia’s capital account is closed for major hard currencies. The absence of capital flows means that the exchange rate does not perform its forward-looking role based on expectations – it only reflects day to day trade flows, most of which is energy trade.”

“Due to the sanctions, the RUB exchange rate now only reflects current account flows. Hence, the Ruble is likely to depreciate medium-term due to the declining current account surplus.”

“We expect the USD/RUB fixing to reach around 90.00 by the end of 2024.”

Source: Commerzbank Research