FOMC to hike 25 bps, future policy decisions “adaptive” – ANZ

Analysts at Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) Banking Group offer their expectations on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision due to be announced next Wednesday.

Key quotes

“We expect the FOMC will raise rates by 25bp when it meets next week. That would leave the target ceiling for fed funds at 5.25% and effective fed funds in line with the median (and end 2023) dot plot of 5.10%.”

“Our baseline forecast is for one more 25bp rate rise to 5.50%. With respect to the bigger picture, however, the tightening cycle may be nearing its conclusion. We expect future rate decisions to be determined meeting-by-meeting.”

“Our GDP estimates expect the lagged effects of last year’s rate rises to bite more deeply in Q2. We expect consumption and labour market growth to moderate. However, core services inflation ex-shelter may take time to ease.”

“Bank solvency is an issue that the FOMC will factor into its deliberations. It is imperative that inflation is brought under control to protect the value of bank assets. We expect fed funds to hold steady in H2 2023 to squeeze inflation.”