AUD/USD: Weak phase over? – UOB

In the opinion of UOB Group’s Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang, AUD/USD has now likely moved into a consolidative range.

Key Quotes

24-hour view: “Last Friday, we expected AUD to trade sideways between 0.6700 and 0.6760. While AUD rose to 0.6775, there is no marked improvement in upward momentum. Today, AUD is unlikely to advance much further. Instead, AUD is more likely to trade between 0.6735 and 0.6780.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “We have a negative AUD view since the middle of last month. In our latest narrative from last Thursday (02 Mar, spot at 0.6755), we indicated that ‘downward momentum is waning rapidly and the odds for AUD to weaken further have diminished considerably’. In NY trade, AUD rose to a high of 0.6775. While our ‘strong resistance’ level at 0.6800 is not breached, downward momentum has more or less fizzed out. In other words, the weak phase in AUD has ended. The current price actions are likely the early stages of a consolidation phase and AUD is likely to trade between 0.6695 and 0.6820 for the time being.”